In April 2025, Mexico entered a technical recession, with revised growth forecasts and trade uncertainties with the U.S. The death of Pope Francis led to national mourning. In Argentina, economic reforms were implemented to attract investment, while Brazil faced the imprisonment of Fernando Collor for corruption and a fraud scandal in the INSS, resulting in government resignations. In Peru, the acquisition of Telefónica del Perú created uncertainty about the impact on services and jobs. Brazil also hosted a BRICS event, advocating for diplomatic solutions to international conflicts.
Mexico
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Mexico enters a technical recession and international organizations lower their growth forecasts
In April 2025, Mexico faces a complex economic outlook following the confirmation of its entry into a technical recession. National and international financial institutions, such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Ministry of Finance, reported that the country has experienced two consecutive quarters of contraction in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP): a 0.5% drop in the last quarter of 2024 and a further 0.4% decline in the first quarter of 2025.
This situation has generated concern among investors and business leaders, as the recession translates into lower economic activity, reduced job creation, and a less favorable investment environment. As a result, both the World Bank and the Ministry of Finance have revised downward their growth forecasts for the remainder of the year. The World Bank now estimates zero growth (0%) for 2025, while the Ministry of Finance adjusted its growth target to between 1.5% and 2.3%, significantly lower than previously projected.
Among the factors explaining this economic performance are the slowdown in domestic consumption, the decline in public and private investment, political uncertainty, and trade tensions with the United States. Experts warn that without countercyclical measures and effective public policies to encourage investment and employment, the recovery could be slow and protracted.
Sources:
- https://www.jornada.com.mx/noticia/2025/04/23/economia/mexico-esta-en-recesion-tecnica-reporta-citi
- https://www.tvazteca.com/aztecanoticias/economia-mexico-crecera-un-0-para-2025-dice-banco-mundial-recesion-que-significa
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Uncertainty over the renegotiation of the USMCA and trade tensions with the United States
The trade relationship between Mexico and the United States is experiencing a period of high uncertainty, primarily due to signs of a possible early renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). U.S. President Donald Trump has toughened his trade policy, imposing new tariffs on Mexican products and pushing for a review of certain clauses of the agreement, especially in the agricultural, automotive, and clean energy sectors.
This situation has generated concern among business leaders, exporters, and economic analysts, who warn that the uncertainty is directly affecting investment decision-making and the stability of supply chains. Some manufacturing projects and new industrial plants have been postponed or canceled pending greater clarity on the future of the agreement.
The Mexican government, for its part, has initiated rounds of dialogue with its counterparts in the United States and Canada, seeking to defend national interests and ensure the continuity of a trade framework that has been key to economic growth and job creation in Mexico over the past decades. On a positive note, Mexican diplomacy has ensured that, despite trade tensions and new tariffs imposed by the United States, 85% of Mexican exports are protected under the USMCA, especially in key sectors such as automobiles, steel, and aluminum. This represents an important victory for the country’s economy and trade stability.
However, analysts agree that political and trade volatility could persist in the coming months, affecting the country’s economic performance and international market confidence.
Sources:
- https://elpais.com/mexico/economia/2025-04-02/mexico-recorta-su-prevision-del-pib-para-2025-ante-la-incertidumbre-por-los-aranceles-de-trump.html
- https://www.bloomberglinea.com/latinoamerica/mexico/mexico-esta-en-recesion-esto-dice-el-pronosticador-mas-pesimista-para-la-economia-en-2025/
- https://www.excelsior.com.mx/opinion/frentes-politicos/frentes-politicos-4-abril-2025/1708890
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Mexico joins in mourning for the death of Pope Francis
In Mexico, the death of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025, generated profound shock and numerous expressions of condolences. President Claudia Sheinbaum publicly mourned his passing, highlighting his humanism, his closeness to the most vulnerable, and his constant message of peace. During her morning press conference on April 21, Sheinbaum announced that a biography and reflection on the pontiff’s life and legacy would be presented the following day. She emphasized that, although Mexico is a secular state, there is great sympathy for the Pope for his defense of the poor and equality.
Thousands of Mexicans gathered at the Basilica of Guadalupe for a collective mourning, where a Mass was held presided over by the Archbishop of Mexico, Carlos Aguiar Retes. This place was noted as one of Pope Francis’ favorites, who officiated a mass ceremony there in 2016 and prayed for the victims of violence in Mexico. The emotional attendance reflected the impact that the pontificate of the first Latin American Pope had on the Mexican Catholic community and society at large.
Furthermore, Francis’ legacy in Mexico is remembered for his focus on social justice, humility, and defense of the rights of the most disadvantaged, values that resonated throughout many sectors of the country. President Sheinbaum and other Mexican leaders confirmed their participation in the international events of condolence and support for the Vatican in this time of mourning.
Sources:
- https://elpais.com/internacional/2025-04-22/ultima-hora-de-la-muerte-del-papa-francisco.html
- https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2025/04/22/mexico/video/sheinbaum-mexico-muerte-papa-francisco-perspectivas-mexico
- https://www.infobae.com/mexico/2025/04/21/claudia-sheinbaum-lamento-la-muerte-del-papa-francisco-es-una-perdida-dolorosa/
ARGENTINA
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Economic Reforms and Mourning for Pope Francis in Argentina
In April, Argentina experienced one of its most significant economic shifts in recent years: the partial lifting of currency controls and a move toward unifying the multiple exchange rates that had long complicated the country’s financial landscape. This policy change, often referred to as the “lifting of the cepo,” marked a turning point for the administration’s economic plan, aiming to restore investor confidence and stabilize macroeconomic variables.
One of the most notable consequences of this shift is that companies are now allowed to repatriate profits and send dividends abroad—something that had been heavily restricted for years. This measure is expected to improve Argentina’s business climate, making it more attractive for foreign investors and multinational firms that had previously viewed the country’s capital controls as a major barrier to doing business.
The government also made substantial progress in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), resulting in a new agreement that provides much-needed financial support. The deal includes commitments to reduce the fiscal deficit, control inflation, and accelerate structural reforms. By aligning the exchange rate with market conditions, the government aims to reduce distortions that previously fueled inflation and encouraged capital flight.
Although the currency unification is still in process and not entirely complete, the official and parallel dollar rates have been brought significantly closer. This move is seen as a first step toward a more transparent and predictable economic environment. Analysts view this as a bold and risky maneuver, but one that could pay off if accompanied by sustained fiscal discipline and political stability.
Overall, the combination of exchange rate reform, the permission to remit dividends abroad, and the IMF agreement has defined April as a crucial month in Argentina’s ongoing economic realignment. The measures are designed to attract foreign investment, strengthen reserves, and pave the way for long-term growth, though the social and political costs of the adjustment remain high.
On the other hand, on April 21, Pope Francis died at the age of 88 after several months of respiratory problems. His death generated a deep shock in Argentina, his native country, where he was widely remembered for his humility, commitment to the most vulnerable and his transforming role in the Catholic Church. President Javier Milei decreed seven days of national mourning and expressed his sorrow, noting that, despite differences, it was an honor to have known the pontiff.
In Buenos Aires, thousands of people gathered at the Metropolitan Cathedral and in the neighborhood of Flores, where Jorge Bergoglio was born and took his first steps in the faith. Neighbors and faithful came to the church of San José de Flores and to his birthplace to pay homage. The pope’s legacy is also reflected in initiatives such as Scholas Ocurrentes, a global educational network he founded to promote dialogue and inclusion among young people, and which now faces the challenge of continuing without his leadership.
PERU
1. Telefónica del Perú sold to Integra Tec for S/3.7 million.
The company Integra Tec acquired Telefónica del Perú for 3.7 million soles, equivalent to one million dollars. This change of ownership, which was formalized on April 16, 2025, has generated uncertainty among users and workers, who are waiting for details on how this transition will affect services and jobs. Integra Tec assumes liabilities and debts amounting to more than 2 billion euros.
2. Indecopi warns that Chancay Megaport does not offer competitive conditions with Callao, APN and Ositrán would go on to set tariffs.
The Chancay Megaport, inaugurated on November 14, 2024 and currently in trial period, has been the object of a technical analysis by the Commission for the Defense of Free Competition (CLC) of Indecopi, which concluded that there are no competition conditions in the port services that will be offered in this infrastructure. According to Ositrán, when these conditions do not exist, it is up to this entity to set the rates for port services. In this case, a rate similar to that of the nearest port, the Port of Callao, would be applied initially, considering factors such as the type of service, the destination of the shipment and the weight of the cargo.
3. Congress approves regulation of artificial intelligence: more severe penalties for those who commit crimes using AI
The Plenary of Congress approved an opinion that establishes criminal penalties for those who use artificial intelligence (AI) for criminal purposes. The proposal modifies the Criminal Code and the Computer Crimes Law, incorporating the use of AI as an aggravating factor in the commission of crimes. This measure, which includes the prohibition of technologies such as deepfakes, seeks to curb the abuse of technological tools in criminal activities, such as child pornography, defamation and other cybercrimes. The initiative establishes that judges will be able to increase the custodial sentence by up to one third above the legal maximum for those who use AI or similar technologies to commit crimes.
BRASIL
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Ex-President Fernando Collor Arrested After Corruption Conviction
Former President Fernando Collor was arrested in Alagoas after his conviction for passive corruption and money laundering was upheld by the Supreme Federal Court (STF). The conviction stems from his involvement in illicit financial dealings during his presidency in the 1990s. In addition to Collor’s arrest, a massive fraud scandal in the Brazilian National Social Security Institute (INSS) was uncovered. The scheme affected up to 4.1 million beneficiaries, who were subject to irregular deductions from their pensions and social security payments. The fraud is estimated to have caused a loss of R$ 6.3 billion from 2019 to 2024, highlighting the extensive corruption in the public sector.
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Government Resignations After INSS Scandal
The INSS scandal led to significant political upheaval in Brazil. Carlos Lupi, the Minister of Social Security, resigned after being implicated in the mismanagement and corruption associated with the fraud. Alessandro Stefanutto, the President of the INSS, was also dismissed due to his failure to prevent or address the fraudulent activities within the institution. Stefanutto’s position was taken over by Gilberto Waller Júnior, who is expected to reform the organization and restore public trust. This series of resignations came as a response to public outrage and the need for accountability in the federal government.
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Brazil Calls for an End to Wars and Tensions at BRICS Event
Brazil hosted a BRICS event in April 2025, where the country took a strong stance on global peace and security. During the opening session, Brazilian diplomats called for an immediate end to ongoing wars and international tensions, emphasizing the importance of diplomacy in resolving conflicts. Brazil used the platform to advocate for peaceful solutions to global challenges, particularly in regions suffering from political instability. The country underscored its role as a mediator in international relations, aiming to promote dialogue and cooperation within the BRICS group and with the broader international community. The call for peace is part of Brazil’s ongoing foreign policy strategy to strengthen its position as a key diplomatic actor.
The post Latin America in April 2025: Recession in Mexico, Reforms in Argentina, and Scandals in Brazil appeared first on Sherlock Communications.
